The Iraqi Football

Democratic pundits say a withdrawal from Iraq will force the Iraqis to start policing themselves and control the violence in their country. Republican pundits say withdrawing would cause Iraq to spiral into chaos. Whether or not the U.S. military leaves Iraq any time soon in the first place will depend on who wins the presidential race, which may be followed as closely in Iraq as in the United States. Ambassador Ryan Crocker suggested that the country’s fragile political balances will fall apart in the event of a pull-out as the Iraqis fall back on centuries-old ethnic and religious alliances in order to protect themselves from emboldened insurgent groups. Of course, the anti-war Left emphatically rejects this line of reasoning (no matter how much theoretical sense it makes).

What really would happen? In reality, nobody knows, and a lot of the most outspoken pundits on the issue probably don’t care. To them, Iraq is just one more topic to fight about with the other side, a tool to stir up partisan fervor, increase T.V. ratings, and win elections for their side by either sucking up to voters’ naturally sunny/non-violent dispositions (Democrats) or preying on their fears (Republicans). Given that a pundit’s popularity and salary depends on being both loud and right, too few of them probably have the best interests of the Iraqis at heart. It is why many liberal pundits automatically refuse to consider the merits of Crocker’s analysis. As depressing as it sounds, some probably hope that the violence and disorder in Iraq continues if McCain wins in November. Likewise, if Obama or Clinton wins, a good number of conservative talking heads will be secretly hoping that Iraq descends into full-blown chaos when the American military leaves, for no other reason than to prove how right they were all along.

Will Iraqis take express solidarity and finally take charge of their country, or re-draw their traditional battle lines? The only certainty is that no matter what happens, America’s opinion leaders on both sides of the spectrum will claim victory.